2025 Copper market outlook

At ZKR, we value the opportunity to build strong relationships with both new and long-standing clients, often in a more relaxed, social setting. These discussions offer a chance to share insights, discuss strategy, and exchange market anecdotes over a drink—usually a local favourite, Swan Draught from Western Australia. If there’s ever a drink that has inspired the global financial markets, it might just be the black swan!

Speaking of black swans and the impact of the highly improbable, we turn our focus to the copper market, a critical component of the global commodities sector and a key indicator of global growth and investment market expectations. Using our proprietary analytics platform, we’ve analysed the current copper market, looking at the distribution of copper price changes which appears to have shifted to a “fat-tailed” distribution in the near term.

A few key takeaways:

Low Impact News Flow: Recent market updates and data have been relatively mild, failing to significantly impact copper prices. The market is extremely susceptible to the impact of a material piece of news flow.

Volatility Risk: Those employing “long volatility” strategies may find their theta bills costly. Look at longer dated volatility strategies.

Watch the Wings: If you're looking to position for a shock move through low delta options potentially look at option spreads as an initial core position.

As we look ahead to 2025, we’re excited to continue supporting our clients with in-depth market insights and tailored strategies. We’re always open to discussing how ZKR can add value to your goals—perhaps over a Swan Draught if the opportunity arises!